Ed Miliband’s leadership was plunged into crisis last night as Labour MPs moved to oust him.
Backbenchers
horrified by a slump in the polls have told the chairman of the
parliamentary party they want Mr Miliband out before the General
Election.
Following
a meeting of North West MPs on the eve of Bonfire Night, members of the
Shadow Cabinet are being urged to move against the leader and save
Labour from a humiliating defeat in May.
Under siege:Ed Miliband’s exhausted expression yesterday – the bags under his eyes show the pressure is starting to tell on him
Face-off: Andy Burnham, left, has union backing, while Yvette Cooper, right, is the bookies' favourits
Several
leading frontbenchers are understood to be privately discussing his
leadership and only Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls leapt to Mr Miliband’s
defence in public yesterday.
One
Shadow Cabinet source said: ‘There are people around the leader still
saying that all we need is to show the public the “real Ed” and
everything will be all right. With respect, that idea has been tested to
destruction – people have seen him and they don’t like him. The result
is they’re not listening to us and we’ve only got six months to go.’
Mr
Miliband was forced to deny last night that he faced a plot, describing
reports as ‘nonsense’. He said the question of his leadership ‘does not
arise’. But he has been rocked by a series of recent setbacks:
- Labour support has slumped to just 29 per cent and Mr Miliband is even more unpopular than Nick Clegg;
- Disaster was only narrowly averted in the Heywood and Middleton by-election, a supposedly safe seat where Labour haemorrhaged votes to Ukip;
- Polls show the party faces a wipeout in Scotland next year, with the potential loss of more than 30 seats to the SNP;
- Anger is still simmering over Mr Miliband’s disastrous speech at September’s party conference in which he forgot to mention the deficit and migration;
- A bungled reshuffle saw key Miliband allies promoted at the expense of big hitters such as Alan Johnson, causing a further rift in the ranks;
- New Statesman magazine launched a devastating attack, calling Mr Miliband an ‘old-style Hampstead socialist’ and a ‘quasi-Marxist’.
Analysis of IpsosMORI polling dating
back to 1977 by MailOnline shows how only Michael Foot had worse
personal satisfaction ratings than Ed Miliband six months before a
general election
Only a quarter of voters say they are satisfied with Mr Miliband as Labour leader, with almost two thirds dissatisfied
One
rebel MP told the Daily Mail: ‘I want him out – he’s an absolute
disaster who is going to cost us the election. Almost anyone would do
better for us. The momentum has been gathering in the last 48 hours –
people are coming together now and being more explicit about their
concerns.
'There
are a hell of a lot of people who are unhappy – this is not just the
usual suspects, it includes people in the Shadow Cabinet. But we need
them to act now.’
Desperate: Mr Miliband, pictured on Thursday night, dismissed suggestions that his leadership was being called into question
Another
senior MP said: ‘We are in a desperate situation. We’re six months out
from an election and we’re polling 29 per cent – the same as Gordon
Brown. There are a lot of people who now think we should get rid of the
leader. Of course it’s late, but it’s hard to see how it could make it
worse.’
Mr
Brown’s former spin doctor Damian McBride said: ‘He can’t do much about
the fact he comes from Hampstead but he can do something about the fact
that he’s constantly acting as though life revolves around what goes on
in Hampstead.’
Mr
Miliband, challenged over the criticism while visiting Northampton
yesterday, dismissed suggestions that his leadership was being called
into question, saying: ‘This is nonsense. My focus, the Labour Party’s
focus, is on the country and the things that matter to the country.
That’s the cost-of-living crisis, it’s the NHS, it’s the prospects for
the next generation.’ Asked about threats to his leadership, he replied:
‘I don’t accept that this matter arises.’
Former
Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett last night accused rebels briefing
against Mr Miliband of a ‘bout of political insanity’ that would wreck
hopes of an election win. But Lord Soley, a former chairman of the
parliamentary party, admitted it was a ‘serious’ crisis.
The
party leadership believes the plot will fizzle out – partly because the
plotters lack organisation and partly because they are not agreed on an
alternative candidate. However, several Shadow Cabinet members are
thought to be pondering whether the benefits of ditching Mr Miliband
outweigh the risks.
A
YouGov poll for LBC Radio last night found that 49 per cent of voters
believe Labour would be more likely to win the election with a different
leader.
Disillusioned and desperate, how a group of furious MPs decided the time had come to throw their leader overboard
It was the night when frustration over Ed Miliband’s leadership spilled over.
What
should have been a routine meeting of Northern Labour MPs in a House of
Commons committee room on Tuesday evening to discuss election tactics
swiftly turned into an inquest on where the party is going wrong.
For
some of those present that night, there is only one sure way to reverse
Labour’s disturbing poll ratings: throw their leader overboard.
The
gathering of 30 or so North West based MPs – on the eve of the Guy
Fawkes night – was chaired by the Blairite veteran and former Cabinet
minister Hazel Blears, who has been sidelined by party high command
since the election defeat of 2010.
PR disasters: Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and sports a 'This is what a feminist looks like' T-shirt
But
it took place against a backdrop of the recent Heywood and Middleton by
election in Greater Manchester where Labour hung on to a supposedly
safe seat by a thread after a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Ukip.
MPs
warned on Tuesday that this could be repeated across the region next
year and said the party is heading for defeat in key marginals such as
Rossendale and Darwen and Bury North.
String of PR disasters
One
recent national analysis has showed Mr Miliband has managed to lose
four points from what was supposed to be the ‘rock bottom’ Labour vote
secured by Gordon Brown in 2010.
A
string of highly public PR disasters – including an inelegant attempt
to eat a bacon sandwich, the sporting of a ‘This is what a feminist
looks like’ T-shirt and his meeting with a Romanian beggar – haven’t
helped.
But serious complaints of some at the meeting also included Labour’s disastrous position in Scotland.
Incredibly,
David Cameron is now more popular in Scotland than the Labour leader,
and pollsters say the party is on course to lose 20 or more seats to the
SNP – a shattering blow to its hopes of regaining power.
The suave Andy Burnham
One
significant absentee from the meeting was a North West-based MP whose
star is very much in the ascendant: Labour health spokesman and member
for Leigh, Andy Burnham.
The
suave Mr Burnham, who had an unsuccessful tilt at the leadership in
2010, energised Labour’s lacklustre conference in Manchester in
September with a shamelessly populist speech about the National Health
Service.
Crucially,
his energetic performance came less than 24 hours after Mr Miliband’s
dismal leader’s speech in which he infamously ‘forgot’ to even mention
Britain’s budget deficit or immigration. Mr Burnham – a key figure for
those dreaming of Mr Miliband’s removal – rubbed salt in the wound the
next day with a tub-thumping performance that delighted the party
faithful.
The
former Blairite, who happily signed off deals involving the private
sector in the NHS during his time in charge of the Department of Health,
has won cheers from unions for promising a boycott on any further such
arrangements and emotional attacks on the Tories’ ‘selling off’ of the
health service.
So even though Mr Burnham was absent, his name was in many MPs’ thoughts as a possible alternative.
On
Tuesday, a string of discontented backbenchers – who already include
Rochdale’s Simon Danzcuk, Blackley and Broughton’s Graham Stringer and
Birkenhead’s Frank Field – made their feelings plain.
One
man they have also spoken to is David Watts, the member for St Helens
on Merseyside, who is also chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Mr
Watts, a loyalist who rarely attracts headlines, is now believed to
have ‘taken soundings’ over the leadership and is acting as a conduit
for disgruntled MPs.
Next in line? Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, pictured with Mr Miliband, is the bookies' favourite
On
Wednesday – Bonfire Night – one MP even claimed Mr Watts and Mr
Miliband were seen having a stand-up row in Parliament this week,
something denied by both parties. But at least two MPs are believed to
have told Mr Watts they wanted Mr Miliband out.
On
the very same evening, the house journal of the Left, the New
Statesman, devoted its front cover and several inside pages to analysis
of Mr Miliband’s travails . Its editorial even branded him a ‘old-style
Hampstead socialist’ and ‘quasi Marxist’.
As
this was digested by the Westminster class, Mr Miliband was in the
throes of an emergency reshuffle sparked by the departure of Blairite
Shadow cabinet member Jim Murphy to fight for the Scottish Labour
leadership.
The botched reshuffle
But even this routine party management exercise only succeeded in enraging his critics further.
Rather
than reaching out by promoting Blairite ex-Cabinet minister Lord Adonis
or charismatic former postman Alan Johnson, Mr Miliband handed key jobs
to two chums – his ex-chief of staff Lucy Powell and hardcore union
loyalist Jon Trickett, a former student of his father Ralph. One source
on Labour’s ruling NEC was quoted saying: ‘They’re only promoting their
friends... This is madness.’
By
yesterday morning the BBC had even been briefed that a mini coup was
underway and that Mr Miliband would make a statement after lunch. In the
end, he did no such thing.
Instead,
during a trip to marginal Northampton, he concentrated on discussing
local bus regulations and batted off leadership questions, describing
them as ‘nonsense’.
The
lack of agreement on a contender to replace him – and the occasional
political success, such as his pledge last year to freeze energy bills –
have so far prevented a full-blown leadership crisis.
But
with polls now putting the Conservatives neck and neck with Labour, and
showing Mr Miliband is haemorrhaging support on the Left to the Greens
and the SNP, he faces his most perilous period since snatching the crown
from brother David in 2010.
To
the horror of Mr Miliband’s allies, the party’s main financial backer –
the all-powerful ‘Red’ Len McCluskey, head of the union Unite, has said
it would not matter if the Labour leader fell under a bus.
For good measure, he declared that the frontbencher who most impresses him at present is Mr Burnham.
Even less popular than Nick Clegg
Dismay: Miliband's collapsing personal
rating have now sunk lower than those of the unpopular Deputy Prime
Minister Nick Clegg, pictured yesterday
Suggestions
that Mr Miliband came close to sacking shadow Chancellor Ed Balls this
autumn have also infuriated sections of the party - and emboldened
supporters of his wife Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, as Mr
Miliband’s successor.
Doubts
about Mr Miliband now extend far beyond MPs in the North West. Even
Shadow Cabinet ministers have expressed private doubts over whether the
party can win with him at the helm.
There
is widespread dismay at his painful reluctance to discuss spending
cuts, welfare reform or immigration – and his collapsing personal
ratings, which have now sunk below even those of the unpopular Deputy
Prime Minister Nick Clegg. However, while there is no doubt over the
depth of unhappiness, there is little sign yet of an organised plot.
Mr
Miliband’s fate appears to hinge on whether shadow ministers – some of
whom are understood to have met privately to discuss his future – can
agree on his fate and engineer a ‘coronation’ rather than a divisive
leadership contest with an election only months away.
For
Mr Miliband to be forced out, Miss Cooper and Mr Burnham would have to
agree he has reached the point of no return – and come to some
accommodation about which of them would replace him.
For now, there is no indication of such a deal. But Labour is holding its breath.
The runners who are lining up to replace Ed Miliband...
Ed Miliband’s position is made easier by the fact that none of his potential rivals has declared their hand.
Many
MPs want Alan Johnson, the popular former postman, to throw his hat
into the ring – saying he has much greater appeal with voters than the
awkward Mr Miliband.
But
Mr Johnson, who served as Home Secretary under Gordon Brown, has all
but ruled himself out, claiming last month that he had ‘no appetite for
being on the frontbench’.
His refusal to put himself forward will force any plotters to look elsewhere.
It
seems the succession would come down to a face-off between shadow home
secretary Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary.
The
bookies are increasingly throwing their weight behind Mr Burnham, who
made a well-received speech on the NHS at September’s Labour conference –
in marked contrast to Mr Miliband’s famously poor effort.
It is reported that, emboldened by his conference success, he is already canvassing support; particularly in the North West.
Ladbrokes
yesterday cut Mr Burnham’s chances of leading the party from 6/1 into
4/1 to be the next party leader, as more and more political punters back
him.
Ruled himself out: Popular former postman Alan Johnson said he had no appetite for the frontbench
The
former health secretary has also gained the support of militant union
leader Len McCluskey who said last month Mr Burnham is the person who
‘most impresses’ him on the Labour frontbench.
However,
Miss Cooper is still favourite to take over if Mr Miliband goes;
attracting odds of 7/2. She can at least count on the support of her
husband, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, who is unlikely to have much chance
of victory on his own. Mr Johnson is further down the betting pecking
order on 12/1.
If
none of these decide to stand, it could be left to younger
frontbenchers such as Chuka Umunna (8/1), with Rachel Reeves and
Tristram Hunt outside bets on 16/1.
The
man who Labour MPs and party members wanted to be leader – David
Miliband – has odds of 20/1. But there is no chance of him taking the
reins from his brother because he has stepped down as an MP and moved to
the US.
... But the rules mean it is impossible
Party
rules say that to force out the leader, a vote of no-confidence has to
be called – and the only way for that to happen is a card vote at the
party’s annual conference.
No such move was made at the last Labour conference six weeks ago in Manchester and none is scheduled before May’s election.
So
it seems that those dissatisfied with Ed Miliband’s leadership have
missed their chance to force him out. Their only hope is that the
pressure becomes so intolerable that he decides to step down for the
good of the party. This could happen if, for example, a large number of
MPs say publicly they want him to go. In that case, other candidates
would be able to put themselves forward.
To become a candidate, an MP needs the support of 15 per cent of the parliamentary party – or 39 of Labour’s current 257 MPs.
The
voting rules in a leadership contest were changed in March to a one
member, one vote system for MPs, MEPs, party members and affiliated
union members.
